'The Martian' author Andy Weir is less optimistic about getting to Mars than NASA

"The Martian" was reviewed on this blog.

"During a manned mission to Mars, Astronaut Mark Watney is presumed dead after a fierce storm and left behind by his crew. But Watney has survived and finds himself stranded and alone on the hostile planet. With only meager supplies, he must draw upon his ingenuity, wit and spirit to subsist and find a way to signal to Earth that he is alive." - IMDA

Director:Ridley Scott

Writers: Drew Goddard (screenplay), Andy Weir (book)

The book is soon to be a movie starring Matt Damon, but the book's author Andy Weir is surprisingly less optimistic than NASA about the likelihood of humans making it to Mars, "My stock answer is probably around 2050," Weir told the audience assembled at this week's Humans to Mars conference at The George Washington University.

"I know that sounds further away than most people would like to hear, but the technology necessary to get there and the costs of getting there are just very high and it's a big challenge."  This was not the timeline that NASA announced at the same conference:  NASA space agency's head, Charles Bolden, opened the conference by announcing a timeline that puts USA astronauts on Mars in the 2030s, a goal that Bolden insisted NASA is on track to meet. In response to a question, Weir told the audience that his own 2050 estimate for getting humans to Mars "might be optimistic," going on to recall that during the Apollo missions, many thought we'd be on Mars by the 1980s.

Weir supports creating a colony on Mars so that humanity can become less dependent on Earth. "I would like to have a self-sufficient colony of humans and other species somewhere other than Earth," he said. "I'm a 25-year-veteran software engineer and I think it's important to back things up."

NASA Plans Mars Human Exploration in 2030s

William H. Gerstenmaier, NASA’s associate administrator for human exploration and operations, likened the steps the agency is taking to the Mercury and Gemini programs, both of which were building blocks toward putting men on the Moon with the Apollo missions.

Wednesday, before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation subcommittee, Gerstenmaier said NASA is taking steps to “that will allow us to make sustained progress toward a human presence on the surface of Mars.” "There is real hardware in manufacture for the path to Mars," Gerstenmaier told senators. In 2017, for example, the agency plans an unmanned test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle, which will be used to take astronauts to Mars. These initial steps toward Mars are comprised of “Earth-reliant” missions, such as the International Space Station, landing on an asteroid in lunar orbit, and finally, a “Mars-ready” mission. During the first stage, NASA, along with international partners and private entities, will conduct research on how to keep space crews safe and productive on long duration spaceflights. The joint effort will also explore how to transport cargo and crew affordably into low Earth orbit. The second major stepping stone was approved by House subcommittee yesterday. That mission calls for NASA to redirect an asteroid into lunar orbit, land astronauts on the asteroid, and return them safely to Earth. “We're going to grab a piece of the solar system, we're going to deflect it around the moon and insert it into a distant retrograde orbit around the moon where our crews can go visit," said Gerstenmaier. The mission he said would develop skills and techniques needed to “push the human presence into the solar system.”

"It is Mars One's goal to establish a human settlement on Mars. Human settlement of Mars is the next giant leap for humankind. Exploring the solar system as a united humanity will bring us all closer together. "

The Mars One shortlist is out, and sadly, most were disappointed. Out of over 200,000 applicants seeking to take part in a 2025 mission to colonize Mars, only 1,000 or so were selected. From that pool, ultimately only two dozen able bodied guys and gals will be tapped to rocket 34 million miles (at its closest orbit) into space – a journey that would take at least five months. Reuters via MSN News on Friday said the whole mission will be funded by – what else but – reality television. “The challenge with 200,000 applicants is separating those who we feel are physically and mentally adept to become human ambassadors on Mars from those who are obviously taking the mission much less seriously,” mission co-founder and Mars One CEO Bas Lansdorp said. The selectees include men and women from 107 countries, with most coming from the U.S. Nearly 300 candidates are from the U.S., 75 are from Canada, and 62 are from India. The mission has the attention, and technical backing, of NASA, Lansdorp reports. Industry experts, including former NASA engineers and a member of the NASA Advisory Council, will be advising the mission throughout its advancement. After the final team is in place, members will begin training as full-time salaried employees of Mars One. “The training will likely happen in the U.S. and the candidates will be like any other expat in the country," Lansdorp said, referring to those from countries outside the U.S. "Hopefully they’ll be able to bring their families over, too. This will be like any other job, except the goal of the job is more ambitious.” Of course, the project has its skeptics – lots of them. "I respect their interest and wish them well, but I really just don't take them seriously," John Spencer, the founder of the Space Tourism Society, told ABC News. "You need billions of dollars to do a Mars mission." Head over to Mars-One.com for more mission critical info.

Elon Musk doesn’t just want to send a person to Mars — he wants to send 80,000.

This still from a SpaceX mission concept video shows a Dragon space capsule landing on the surface of Mars. SpaceX's Dragon is a privately built space capsule to carry unmanned payloads, and eventually astronauts, into space. CREDIT: SpaceX

According to Space.com, the billionaire founder and CEO of the private spaceflight company SpaceX gave details about his hopes for a future Mars colony during a talk at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London on Nov. 16.


Earlier this year, SpaceX became the first private U.S. company to deliver cargo to the International Space Station. Musk has never been shy about his ambitions to take human colonists to another planet, mentioning in the past that he wants to provide flights to Mars for about $500,000 a person. But now he’s talking about building a small-city-sized settlement on the Red Planet, starting with a 10-person crew in the coming decades to begin establishing and building infrastructure.

"That first flight would be expensive and risky but once there are regular Mars flights, you can get the cost down to half a million dollars for someone to move to Mars,” Musk told Space.com. "Then I think there are enough people who would pay that much to live on Mars to have it be a reasonable business case.”

Musk added that he sees the future 80,000-person colony as a public-private enterprise costing roughly $36 billion.

Science-fiction inspired plans are one thing. Musk still has many challenges ahead of him before such a scheme could become reality, including figuring out exactly how to deal with radiation on the way to Mars, how to land humans on the planet’s surface, and how to keep them alive once there. Wired Magazine Editor Chris Anderson interviewed Musk in the November issue, here he outlines a few ways that could help us get there: 
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/11/elon-musk-mars-colony/